“一本不朽的、扣人心弦的......杰作”——《星期日泰晤士报》

凡是有人类判断的地方，就有噪音。

“《噪音》可能是我十多年来读过的最重要的书。一个真正重要的新想法，你会立即把它付诸实践。这是一部杰作”——安吉拉·达克沃斯（Angela Duckworth），《勇气》的作者

“深入调查了一直隐藏在众目睽睽之下的巨大社会问题”——史蒂芬·莱维特（Steven Levitt），《畸形经济学》的作者之一

来自战略思维领域的世界引领者，以及数百万册畅销书《思考，快与慢》和《助推》的作者，这是一本可以改变你思考方式的巨作。

想象一下，同一城市的两个医生对同一个病人作的诊断有很大的差异——或者同一法院的两个法官对犯有相同罪行的人却有截然不同的判决。再想象一下，同一个医生、法官在不同的时间或不同的状态下也会做出不同的判断。这些都是噪音的例子，反映了本应相同却多变的判断。

在《噪音》中，丹尼尔·康纳曼（Daniel Kahneman）、奧利維·席波尼（Olivier Sibony）和凱斯．桑思汀（Cass R. Sunstein）三位行为科学家发现，在医学、法律、公共卫生、经济预测、法医科学、儿童保护、创意战略、绩效评估和招聘等领域，都看得到噪音。尽管在人们做出判断和决定的地方都能发现噪音，但个人和组织一般都会忽视它的影响，因此往往付出巨大的代价。

《噪音》充满了新想法，并借鉴了让《思考，快与慢》和《助推》成为国际畅销书的那种敏锐分析和广泛案例研究，解释了人类如何以及为什么在决策中如此容易受到噪声和偏见的影响。我们做出的错误判断比我们想象的要多，通过一些简单的补救措施，这本开创性的书探讨了我们可以做些什么来做出更好的判断。

“A monumental, gripping book ... Outstanding” ——Sunday Times

Wherever there is human judgement, there is noise.

“Noise may be the most important book I've read in more than a decade. A genuinely new idea so exceedingly important you will immediately put it into practice. A masterpiece”——Angela Duckworth, author of Grit

“An absolutely brilliant investigation of a massive societal problem that has been hiding in plain sight”——Steven Levitt, co-author of Freakonomics

From the world-leaders in strategic thinking and the multi-million copy bestselling authors of Thinking Fast and Slow and Nudge, the next big book to change the way you think.

Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients – or that two judges in the same court give different sentences to people who have committed matching crimes. Now imagine that the same doctor and the same judge make different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday, or they haven’t yet had lunch. These are examples of noise: variability in judgements that should be identical.

In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony and Cass R. Sunstein show how noise produces errors in many fields, including in medicine, law, public health, economic forecasting, forensic science, child protection, creative strategy, performance review and hiring. And although noise can be found wherever people are making judgements and decisions, individuals and organizations alike commonly ignore its impact, at great cost.

Packed with new ideas, and drawing on the same kind of sharp analysis and breadth of case study that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge international bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise and bias in decision-making. We all make bad judgements more than we think. With a few simple remedies, this groundbreaking book explores what we can do to make better ones.